| 摘要 |
<p><P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a technique for predicting an amount demanded of a next model commodity by correcting a predicted share of the next model commodity with a share improvement rate resulted from a model change of a commodity. <P>SOLUTION: The method comprises a means 2 for storing a utility value for each level belonging to each attribute constituting the commodity on a demander basis; a means 8 for calculating and storing a predicted share of a current model commodity; a means 10 for calculating and storing a predicted share of the next model commodity; a means 12 for calculating and storing a predicted share improvement rate by the model change; and a means 26 for calculating and storing an amount demanded for each unit period of the next model commodity by multiplying the predicted share improvement rate by the model change to the next model commodity, a share result stored in a storage means 13, an adaptation function stored in a storage means 18, and a seasonal fluctuation adjustment coefficient stored in a storage means 20. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2008,JPO&INPIT</p> |
