| 摘要 |
<p><P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method and an apparatus for evaluating a maintenance plan by quantitatively evaluating a value even when a strategy for maintenance investment concerned with the delay of equipment investment is applied. <P>SOLUTION: In order to express whether failure will be generated or not at a certain time in the future as a scenario comprising a binary sequence, a maintenance scenario is generated by inputting a strategy and a failure scenario in which the generation of failure is an opportunity for the decision-making e.g. "equipment will be renewed in case of the generation of the first trouble in the future", and the time when the equipment is updated is decided for each scenario. Costs before renewing machinery, losses when the failure is generated, costs for renewing the machinery, and costs after renewing the machinery are arranged in accordance with the scenario and a cash flow in each scenario is calculated. Then the formation probability of each scenario is calculated on the basis of the failure probability of the equipment. Finally the sum of products of the costs of respective scenarios and the formation probability of respective scenarios is calculated to calculate the value of the strategy. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI</p> |
