| 摘要 |
PURPOSE:To accurately predict the variation of furnace heat in a blast furnace without any delaying, by adopting an ARMA model using solution loss carbon quantity or nitrogen content in top furnace gas component as a variable to an MA term. CONSTITUTION:The average value of the solution loss carbon quantity at each interval during a time by going back in a past time from the present time, is calculated and introduced as the variable to the MA term. Next, the predicting value of the molten iron temp. at each iron tapping hole at a time in the future, is found, to compare it with the control temp. In case some abnormality is recognized, warning is given and the above process is gone back to the original step, and in case any abnormality is not recognized, the predicting value of the molten iron temp. is outputted and also the ARMA model, which is gone back to the original step, is adopted. By this method, the effect of deviation of the molten iron temps. by difference of the iron tapping holes can be removed and the prediction accuracy of furnace heat in the blast furnace can be improved. Further, even in case the average value of the nitrogen content in the top furnace gas detected by a gas chromatography is used as the variable to the MA term, the same effect can be expected. |
