| 摘要 |
The present invention provides a guideline for properly reflecting an effect of weather condition changes in an electricity demand forecast by providing an electricity demand index to the current system which predicts an electricity demand by using a single weather information nationwide which calculates a weighted-average of the highest/lowest temperatures of eight cities considering the power consumption and the populations when forecasting the electricity demand. The method comprises: a first step which produces a predicting model by analyzing effects of weather condition changes on the daily basis on changes of power consumption, and performing a statistical analysis of the power consumption change rates depending on weather condition changes (the temperature, humidity, and wind velocity) compared with the previous day and a precipitation, and collects local forecasting data of the weather forecasting agency, a future weather forecasting information; a second step which pre-processes the collected data and calculates a weather change value compared with the previous day; a third step which predicts a change of power consumption of the future by inputting the weather condition changes and the precipitation into the predicting model; and a fourth step which classifies the change values according to a predetermined reference and makes the same be indexed and visualizes the same on the basis of a map. |
