| 摘要 |
PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To calculate a generation probability of failure with consideration of a deterioration state.SOLUTION: A first derivation part 11 derives a function expression, which expresses a failure ratio of each steel pole at each use time based on inspection information, with the use time t as a variable number, from all records of the inspection information. A use time estimation part 12 uses the inspection information as input, and estimates an average use time which is a period until the respective steel pole is deteriorated to respective deterioration state. A second derivation part 13 adds the average use time which is the period until the respective steel pole is deteriorated to the respective deterioration state, estimated by the use time estimation part 12, to the time t which is the variable number of the function expression indicating the failure ratio of the respective steel pole at each use time, derived by the first derivation part 11. A future failure ratio calculation part 14 uses a use year and the deterioration state at a future prediction time T1 as inputs to a function expression of an average failure ratio curve which is derived by the second derivation part 13, and calculates the predicted failure ratio of the respective steel pole according to the use year and deterioration state.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1 |
