Predicting Economic Conditions

摘要

Computer-implemented methods for identifying or assessing any type of risk and/or opportunity that may arise can include either, alone or in combination, band pass filtering, principal component analysis, random matrix theory analysis, synchronization analysis, and early-warning detection. Each technique can also be viewed as a process that takes a set of inputs and converts it to a set of outputs. These outputs can be used as inputs for a subsequent process or the outputs may be directly actionable for formulating certain economic predictions to make certain decisions.

主权项

1. An apparatus comprising:
an early warning system; a processor; and memory storing computer readable instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the apparatus to:
receive economic data of a multiple time series for an economic system;determine correlation coefficient values using the data of multiple time series;create a matrix using the correlation coefficient values;determine the nearest neighbor spacing distribution;determine lowest values of correlation coefficients and set the lowest value of correlation coefficients iteratively to zero;determine a threshold level of a control parameter, wherein the threshold level is detected once a phase transition occurs and wherein a modelled distribution for the economic data changes from a first distribution to a second distribution;output an economic instability prediction based on the threshold level;generate, based on the economic instability prediction, an early warning signal about the economic data, wherein the early warning signal is indicative whether the threshold level is approaching and wherein the early warning signal comprises an early warning notification and detailed information about an a potential instability of the economic data;determine a set of registered computing devices associated with the economic system, wherein the set includes a first device and a second device;send the early warning notification about the economic system to the first and second devices;when an acknowledgment of the early warning notification is received from the first device, initiate launching of an early warning application at the first device; andsend the detailed information about the potential instability to the first device via the early warning application.