| 摘要 |
The present invention discloses a short-term operation optimization method for a power system including large-scale wind power, comprising modeling the randomness of wind power output, modeling the randomness of the load of electric power system and modeling net load of electric power system. Net load refers that for probability distribution of net load that is too discretized, probability distribution curve of net load is divided into N intervals, the probabilities for each interval are obtained and probability distribution curve of net load is obtained through calculating and weighing each interval. Through calculating randomness of power wind output and standard deviation of load prediction error of the electric power system, net load prediction error of the electric power system is obtained and reasonable coordination is made on the electric power system according to prediction error and prediction amount to better regulate the correlations between randomness, volatility, regionalism, double-circuit peak shaving and load of wind power generation, so as to realize optimization operation of the electric power system. |
| 主权项 |
1. A short-term operation optimization method of an electric power system including large-scale wind power characterized in that, the method comprising the following steps:
modelling randomness of wind power output: as prediction error value of wind power output follows a zero-mean normal distribution, relation between standard deviation of prediction error of wind power output is expressed as σwt=kw×ŵt+k0, wherein, σwt is predicted standard deviation of wind power; ŵt is predicted value of wind power; kw and k0 refer to prediction error constant; calculating the wind power output according to the above predicted standard deviation of wind power, which is expressed as wt=ŵt+θwt, wherein, θwt is random variable of prediction error of wind power; modeling randomness of the load of the electric power system: as load of the electric power system follows a normal distribution, standard deviation of prediction error of the load is in direct proportion to predicted value of the load, their relation is expressed as: σdt=kd×{circumflex over (d)}t, wherein, σdt is standard deviation of prediction error random variable of the load; {circumflex over (d)}et is prediction value of the load; kd is prediction error coefficient of the load; after modeling the above wind power output and the load, modeling net load of the electric power system, net load refers to the remaining load when wind power output is taken out from the load of the electric power system, relation of which is expressed as: nt=dt−wt, as wind power output and load of the electric power system are random variables of unrelated normal distribution, then net load follows normal distribution, standard deviation of the net load's prediction error is concluded from the following formula: σnt=√{square root over (σdt2+σwt2)}, probability distribution of the net load is obtained; over-discretizing the probability distribution of the net load, wherein a net load probability distribution curve is divided into N intervals and the probabilities for each interval are obtained and probability distribution curve of net load is obtained through calculating and weighing each interval. |
