Tire market forecasting method

摘要

A method for tire market forecasting combines three sub-methods in order to forecast unit volumes for every tire size in the industry or market segment. The method includes deriving a full trend by a first sub-method M1 for a first tire size TS1 based upon a relationship between OE and replacement markets for size TS1; deriving a full trend by a second sub-method M2 for size TS1 based on an estimated vehicle fleet for size TS1; and comparing the first and second full trends to derive a regular forecast. When a tire size does not follow a predictable pattern according to OE assumptions, a full trend is derived by a third sub-method M3 based on an historic replacement market trend adjusted as needed by statistical tools. A vitality calculation may be made calculating present and future vitality V on a market segment or on a selected tire line, and a vitality goal VG may be established whereupon a strategy may be derived identifying tire sizes required and not required to achieve and maintain the goal over time.