SEASONAL PREDICTION METHOD OF TYPHOON FREQUENCY OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA

摘要

PURPOSE: A seasonal prediction method of typhoon frequency over the East China Sea is provided to express the prediction of the typhoon count as the probability value by Bayesian - Poisson revolving method. CONSTITUTION: The probability function is changed by using the Poisson probability distribution by the Bayesian reasoning. All kinds of the variables are calculated by applying the condition of a predetermined to the random variable. Double-cycles are considered. Double-cycles include the peak season from 6 month and 7 month and the expansion season from 6month to 9 month. The prediction of the typhoon count is indicated as the probability value by using the weather variable precursor.