METHOD FOR THE SHORT-RANGE FORECAST OF THE RISK SEISMIC HAZARD OF A SEISMICALLY HAZARDOUS REGION

摘要

The inventive method for the specific seismically hazardous region of the globe in the second equatorial coordinates system consists in determining the vector "Z" in a zenith direction and the vector "V" of a rotational speed, in forming, in the second equatorial coordinates system, for said seismically hazardous region, the additional area of critical directions comprising the vector "A " of a first critical direction having in the second equatorial coordinates system the following co-ordinates: a declination d=36°±10°, a straight ascendancy a= 293° ±10° and a cone area of the vectors of the second critical direction in the form of an area "A<SUB>g</SUB>" delimited by two cone surfaces whose angular openings are equal to 90° and 110°, respectively. The expected maximum modification of the magnetic or/and electrical or/and gravitation fields of the Earth and the location of said vectors "Z" and "V" in one of the critical positions with respect to the critical direction area, for forecast time interval in the seismically hazardous region, makes it possible to conclude that there is a risk seismic hazard for said seismically hazardous region for the forecast time interval. The invention makes it possible to identify the presence of a critical situation within a time period ranging from several hours to several days before the beginning of a earthquake.