MODEL SELECTION TYPE DEMAND PREDICTING SYSTEM BY PREDICTIVE PURPOSES

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To improve accuracy in prediction by analyzing the demand characteristics of an article and making a process for extracting a demand model in response to the demand characteristics into a routine. SOLUTION: 'Trend/pattern presence/absence judgement' is processing for judging the presence/absence of trend and pattern by performing trend analysis and pattern analysis on the basis of demand result information. Relating to 'predictive model selection', the candidates of a demand predictive model are selected from the judged result of trend/pattern presence/absence. In order to evaluate the candidate models, predictive values (predictive values for evaluation) in the case of applying respective candidate models in the past are calculated and an evaluation value is calculated in comparison with the real demand result. This is processing for selecting the optimum predictive model on the basis of the result. 'Further predictive value calculation' is processing for calculating a predictive value in future while using the selected predictive model.