| 摘要 |
PURPOSE:To secure a railway power load predictor that is able to keep the extent of working electric power down to less than the contract demand by predicting an amount of working electric power in a yet more accurate manner, and on the basis of this predicted result, performing a train operation notch limitation and its release precisely. CONSTITUTION:This predictor is provided with traveling pattern predicting means 1 forecasting a predictive traveling pattern of an object feeder section for a span of subsequent T minutes in regard to each train, on the basis of a planning travel pattern commensurate to a diagram at each train type prearranged; traveling-accelerating distance calculating means 7 calculating a traveling distance and accelerating distance at the object feeder section for the subsequent T minutes as to each train, from the predictive traveling pattern predicted by this traveling pattern predicting means 1, respectively; and electric power predicting means 8 predicting an amount of load electric energy in a substation at the object feeder section by a regression model formed from working electric power actual data in the past in advance from the number of trains and both the traveling and accelerating distances calculated by the traveling-accelerating distance operational means 7. |
