| 摘要 |
FIELD: prediction of high-power solar flares. SUBSTANCE: method involves recording full and circularly polarized microwave radiation of active region with resolution not worse than 30 and determining probability of high-power solar flare with 24-hour term of forecast. Method is characterized in that solar latitude &; and solar longitude lambda of active region, its length l, angle of inclination of axis of sun-spot group relative to sun equator Δ, magnitude and polarity of magnetic field in sun-spots are measured, and magnetic class of active region is determined. Using these data, visible surface of Sun is divided into longitude zones; to this end, boundary positions of zones with known normal, flare-safe distribution of polarization in each separate zone are calculated. Flare danger of active region is recognized by deviation of visible distribution of polarization from normal for zone where analyzed active region is located. Boundaries of longitude zones are calculated every day for better estimation of the effect of evolution of active region. EFFECT: improved confidence of forecast results. 1 tbli
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