METHOD OF PREDICTING DISTRIBUTION NETWORK OPERATION RELIABILITY

摘要

A method of predicting the operation reliability of a distribution network, the method being based on an ARIMA model. By establishing an ARIMA model predict a user monthly power outage count; convert a non-smooth element outage count time series to a smooth time series; perform regression on only lagged values of a dependent variable, and on current values and lagged values of a stochastic error term, so as to establish a user monthly power outage count model; according to a prediction result sample an outage point, and at the same time, taking into account a real time load operating state, establish a failure mode effects table based on TLOC criteria and PLOC criteria; and calculate a system recovery time for each instance of device outage, and finally obtain a whole-year reliability index. The prediction method effectively and accurately guides future distribution network planning, design, operation and maintenance, improves the accuracy of predicting and evaluating distribution network operating reliability, realizing safe and stable distribution network operation and decreasing outage frequency and reducing the range of outages.