SYSTEM, METHOD AND PROGRAM FOR ESTIMATING RISK OF DISASTER IN INFRASTRUCTURE

摘要

Method, system and computer program for estimating risk of a future disaster of an infrastructure. Times of previous, respective disasters of the infrastructure are identified. Respective severities of the previous disasters are determined. Risk of a future disaster of the infrastructure is estimated by determining a relationship between the previous disasters, their respective severities and their respective times of occurrence. The risk can be estimated by generating a polynomial linking severity and time of occurrence of each of the previous disasters. The polynomial can be generated by approximating a Tchebychev polynomial.

主权项

1. A method of estimating risk of a future failure of first and second computer systems and taking remedial action, the method comprising the steps of:
a processor identifying, as first coordinates of first data points, (a) severities of previous, respective failures of the first computer system and (b) respective times of occurrences of the previous, respective failures of the first computer system, wherein the severities are the first coordinates on a severity axis and the respective times of the occurrences are the first coordinates on a perpendicular time axis; the processor generating a first Tchebychev polynomial curve based on the first data points representing the previous failures of the first computer system, and identifying peaks and ends of the first Tchebychev polynomial curve; the processor identifying, as second coordinates of second data points, (a) severities of previous, respective failures of the second computer system and (b) respective times of occurrences of the previous, respective failures of the second computer system, wherein the severities are the second coordinates on the severity axis and the respective times of the occurrences are the second coordinates on the perpendicular time axis; the processor generating a second Tchebychev polynomial curve based on the second data points representing the previous failures of the second computer system, and identifying peaks and ends of the second Tchebychev polynomial curve; and the processor generating a third Tchebychev polynomial curve based on the peaks and ends of the first Tchebychev polynomial curve and the peaks and ends of the second Tchebychev polynomial curve, and recommending additional computer-resource redundancy correlated to a highest peak of the third Tchebychev polynomial curve.