DEMAND FORECASTING DEVICE, DEMAND FORECASTING METHOD, AND DEMAND FORECASTING PROGRAM

摘要

A demand forecasting device (10) is equipped with: an activity number acquisition portion (161a) for acquiring an activity number targeted for demand forecasting; a replacement factor calculating portion (161b) for calculating a replacement factor targeted for demand forecasting, on the basis of a first curve representing a temporal sequence of change in the probability of a malfunction occurring, and a second curve representing a temporal sequence of change in the probability of a malfunction occurring; and a demand forecasting portion (161c) for calculating a demand targeted for demand forecasting, on the basis of the activity number acquired by the activity number acquisition portion (161a), and the replacement factor calculated by the replacement factor calculating portion (161).