A computer-implemented defect prediction method for a device manufacturing process involving production substrates processed by a lithographic apparatus, the method including training a classification model using a training set including measured or determined values of a process parameter associated with the production substrates processed by the device manufacturing process and an indication regarding existence of defects associated with the production substrates processed in the device manufacturing process under the values of the process parameter, and producing an output from the classification model that indicates a prediction of a defect for a substrate.
