STOCHASTIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL FLOOD DISASTER EVALUATING METHOD

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To create a risk curve of higher precision than conventionally assumed with respect to a flood disaster of a massive scale which occurs once in several ten or hundred years whose available data do not exist with respect to past insurance achievements.

SOLUTION: A numerical value by a large-scale disaster model is adopted with respect to a part where an occurrence frequency is low and a scale is large (a part where the risk curve of a large-scale disaster model exceeds a risk curve of a normal disaster model, and is a right half in Figure) and a numerical value by the normal disaster model is adopted with respect to the other parts (a left half in Figure). By composing the two risk curves, a final risk curve is obtained.

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