STRESS TESTING BY AVOIDING SIMULATIONS

摘要

Systems, methods, and computer program products are provided that perform modeling and stress testing algorithms without the need for running simulations and that provide exact or approximate solutions for predicting outcomes of states and distributions of states for components of a structure. The disclosed systems, methods, and products may employ a Markov iteration approach, such as an exact Markov iteration approach or a reduced or simplified Markov iteration approach for predicting states and distributions of states for components of a structure using an algorithm that reduces solution complexity as compared to approaches that employ simulations.

主权项

1. A system comprising:
one or more processors; and a non-transitory computer readable storage medium including instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to perform operations including:
receiving a structure definition for a structure, wherein the structure includes a plurality of components, wherein the structure definition identifies characteristics of components in the structure, and wherein the characteristics identify a current component state from a plurality of component states and a component transition history identifying previous component states;determining an initial component state distribution, wherein a component state distribution identifies a population of components occupying each of the plurality of component states for each component transition history, wherein determining the initial component state distribution includes using the characteristics identified in the structure definition;identifying a stress scenario specification, wherein the stress scenario specification relates to time period dependent stress conditions that affect changes to component characteristics;determining one or more first time period transition matrices using the stress scenario specification, wherein a transition matrix includes a plurality of transition intensities each corresponding to a likelihood that a component in an initial state with a given component transition history will transition to a final state during one time period; anddetermining a first time period component state distribution, wherein determining the first time period component state distribution includes using the initial component state distribution and the one or more first time period transition matrices.