Conversion timing prediction for networked advertising

摘要

A computer-implemented method for conversion timing inference. A conversion timing model is model is configured to predict a likelihood of conversion based on an entity's elapsed time since a qualified entry event. The conversion timing model is constructed based on a distribution of the conversion timespans of converters. Each conversion timespan describes a length of time between a qualified entry event and a conversion event for a converted entity. A notification of an opportunity to expose a candidate entity to networked content is received and the likelihood of conversion for the candidate entity is determined by: determining an elapsed time since a qualified entry event for the candidate entity and applying the conversion timing model to the elapsed time. A response to the notification based on the likelihood of conversion for the candidate entity is prepared. Timely responses may include the selection of customized content, customized advertising content or bid values.

主权项

1. A computer-implemented method comprising:
receiving, from a data repository, histories of a plurality of converted entities, each history comprising time-stamped records of events associated with a respective entity; calculating a conversion timespan for each converted entity by: selecting a time-stamped conversion event from a respective converted entity's history according to conversion event criteria; selecting a time-stamped entry event occurring before the time-stamped conversion event from the respective converted entity's history according to entry event criteria; and calculating an elapsed time between the time-stamped entry event and the time-stamped conversion event; constructing a conversion timing model based on a distribution of the calculated conversion timespans, wherein the conversion timing model is configured to predict a likelihood of conversion for an entity based on the entity's elapsed time since the entity's time-stamped entry event meeting the entry event criteria; receiving, from a real time bidding exchange, notification of an opportunity to bid on an advertising exposure associated with a candidate entity; responsive to receiving notification of the opportunity to bid, determining a time stamp of a qualified entry event of the candidate entity, according to the entry event criteria; identifying the candidate entity's elapsed time since the candidate entity's qualified entry event; calculating a likelihood of conversion for the candidate entity by applying the conversion timing model to the elapsed time since the candidate entity's qualified entry event; and preparing a response to the notification based on the likelihood of conversion for the candidate entity.