| 摘要 |
PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To correct a similar phenomenon abstracted at the time of forecasting and estimating a demand for the supply of an energy flow, with a correcting method adapted to the condition change of an element that relies on the human life. SOLUTION: A resulting DB 13 is obtained from an influential-factor forecasting data 2 and an influential-factor resulting data 3, and a forecasted-factor data table 14 on a forecasting data is also obtained therefrom. The factor includes at least 9 kinds of the days of Sunday to Saturday, a feast day and a special day. MBR function 15 abstracts a plurality of similar days checking the degree of similarity of the data of the forecasted factor and the output of the resulting DB, and NN function 16 calculates a corrective figure of a demand of these similar days by a neural network set on each day. A compound function 17 corrects the resulted supply volume of each similar day with the corrective figure, and after that, outputs the average of a corrective supply volume of all similar days as a forecasted and estimated figure. |
