| 摘要 |
The present invention relates to an apparatus and a method of predicting a thunderstorm or a gust which may analyze a sign phenomenon of the thunderstorm or gust to predict an occurrence of the thunderstorm or gust. The apparatus of predicting the thunderstorm or gust comprises: a thunderstorm gust probability distribution DB unit collecting weather information during a time when thunderstorm or gust occurs to generate an average moving time series of variations in wind velocity for a predetermined time at regular time intervals with regards to a variation in wind velocity before the thunderstorm or gust occurs, and generating and storing gust occurrence probability distribution in accordance with passage of time after the wind velocity increases; an average moving time series generating unit generating moving series of average time with regards to the wind velocity by moving average moving time intervals for a period of time before the thunderstorm or the gust is predicted; an average moving rise time drawing unit applying an average moving modeling function obtained by generalizing a rise time of wind velocity of each average movement by the average moving time intervals to draw an average moving rise time from the average moving time series; and a thunderstorm gust predicting unit extracting, from a thunderstorm gust probability distribution DB unit, a gust occurrence probability distribution after the average moving rise time corresponding to each of the average moving time intervals of the average moving rise time drawing unit, and then extracting the thunderstorm gust occurrence probability by elapsed times after the average moving rise time. The apparatus and the method may predict an occurrence of local thunderstorm or gust, thus minimizing damage caused by the local thunderstorm or gust. |
