METHOD FOR PREDICTING AND MITIGATING POWER FLUCTUATIONS AT A PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PLANT DUE TO CLOUD COVER

摘要

A method for forecasting reduction in sunlight intensity due to cloud cover at a photovoltaic power plant is described. The method comprises determining characteristics of one or more clouds from sensors surrounding the photovoltaic power plant. The cloud characteristics are used to create a 3D map of the clouds. The 3D map in combination with information on the angle of the sun is used to create a 3D projection on the surface of the earth, resulting in a 2D surface irradiance map. The 2D surface irradiance map may be taken in successive projections or used in combination with wind speed data to forecast fluctuation in irradiance at the photovoltaic power plant. The forecasted reductions in power may be used to enact measures at the plant such as reducing the power output of inverters to prevent sudden fluctuations in the power output of the photovoltaic plant feeding the utility.

主权项

1. A method for forecasting a fluctuation in the solar irradiance at a photovoltaic power plant due to cloud cover, comprising:
receiving machine-readable data on one or more clouds from one or more sensors within a radius of a photovoltaic power plant; retrieving machine-readable data from a database on the elevation and azimuth of the sun corresponding to each location of the one or more sensors; determining, through the machine-readable data received from the one or more sensors, horizontal velocities and one or more three-dimensional characteristics of one or more target clouds in the vicinity of the sensors; creating a three-dimensional map of the one or more target clouds through the one or more three-dimensional characteristics; projecting a two-dimensional surface irradiance map within the radius of the photovoltaic power plant by combining the three-dimensional map and machine-readable data on the elevation and azimuth of the sun; and forecasting a fluctuation in the surface irradiance of the photovoltaic power plant over a time interval based on the two-dimensional map and horizontal velocities; wherein at least one of the determining, creating, projecting, and forecasting steps are carried out through a processor.